Irakli Garibashvili leaves politics: Two scenarios for Georgia's future
- Apr 29
- 3 min read
Former Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced his retirement from politics on April 25, 2025. In a press conference, he stated: "I would like to announce that I am retiring from politics. In recent weeks, there have been many rumors about my future political activities, and I consider it my duty to provide clear and complete explanations to society." Trend
But in Georgia, where political resignations are rarely final, this move raises questions. Is this a genuine retreat or merely a tactical move? Two possible scenarios emerge:
Scenario 1: The "pseudo-opposition" – an orchestrated play?
Could it be that Garibashvili—who never does anything without Ivanishvili—will soon return as a fresh "opposition" alongside like-minded figures like former Infrastructure Minister Irakli Karseladze? Not to offer genuine criticism, but to take on the role of "antagonist" in Georgia's political drama?
Anyone who thinks this is far-fetched should be reminded: In authoritarian countries, the so-called "controlled opposition" is a proven means of maintaining a democratic facade. A new faction of "ex-ministers" would deceive Western observers into believing that pluralism exists—while, of course, the same puppet master remains at work behind the scenes: Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Karseladze, who ran the Ministry of Infrastructure with exactly the same transparency as a Russian oligarch runs his accounting, would be just another cog in the system. A pseudo-opposition list under the title "New Strength for Georgia"? It will be interesting to see.
Scenario 2: Russia is fed up with theatre – now the administrators take over
In this scenario, Garibashvili's resignation is not a personal decision, but part of a larger plan: The current leadership team—experienced, loyal, and well-coordinated—is stepping down in an orderly fashion. Not out of exhaustion, but because their task has been fulfilled .
A new team is now taking their place, one that no longer needs old loyalties. Irakli Kobachidze , already the loudest voice in parliament, and his team are finally taking over operational leadership – this time, however, with much closer coordination with Moscow .
The political course has long been clear: Anyone who still believes in independent decision-making in Tbilisi probably also believes in the independence of regional television councils in Russia. Priorities have been set, interlocutors defined, and messages coordinated – and no longer just with their own party headquarters.
The departure of Garibashvili, Karseladze, and co. therefore appears less like a political change than a personnel change at the command level. The control center is no longer located in the country. What follows is not a change of government, but a system update—only this time with the server located further northeast.
Conclusion: A country at a crossroads
Georgia may be facing a shift in strategy—not in content, but in style. The current leaders are stepping down, the script remains the same, only the tone is becoming more authoritarian and direct. Whoever holds the sway in Tbilisi in the future may be more fluent in Russian than Georgian—politically, of course.
Garibashvili's withdrawal is part of a series of moves that appear less like internal party renewal than supra-regional coordination. The new government line appears less Georgianly self-confident than Russian-compliant—and this without any formal affiliation.
Whether this is the result of domestic planning or external coordination? It's difficult to say—but some things can be explained without official confirmation. And sanctions? One can certainly ask rhetorical questions about this—as Garibashvili himself did: "Why should I...?" The answer remains as open as the sovereignty of Georgian democracy.
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